We punters rely on all sorts of historical data to make accurate predictions, from head-to-head, home/away performance, scoring form, and much more. But one such historical data that often gets overlooked is the “historical betting odds” of an event.
The idea of using historical odds to inform your betting approach or strategies might sound strange at first, but it’s the exact opposite. Three researchers from two universities in Italy confirmed the relevance of betting odds data for making football predictions in a 2018 study [1].
So if betting odds data can help us to make better predictions, why not gain deeper insight by studying historical betting odds, how teams performed against those odds, and factors that influenced the performance?
Predictors that stick with a select range of betting markets can even study the historical odds for those specific markets. On your journey, you might discover new and interesting markets, so we recommend 22bet, which has the most betting markets among bookmakers in the country. And you can use the 22bet bonus code to unlock exclusive bonuses without limits on betting markets.
The Importance Of Historical Odds As Punters
Unlike betting data such as head-to-head, recent form, or goal-scoring form, the immediate benefit of studying historical odds isn’t so obvious. But upon closer inspection, you’ll find that betting odds contain valuable information that can aid predictions.
Before we go further, it’s crucial to understand how bookmakers set their odds.
Bookmakers accept bets on a given market and adjust the odds to attract bets in the right proportion to make a profit regardless of the outcome.
They achieve this by offering odds that are higher or lower than their actual statistical probability. The difference between the actual statistical probability and what the bookmaker offers is known as the “bookmaker’s margin”. This margin represents what the bookmaker is charging for providing their betting services.
One major factor that influences how bookmakers adjust their odds is public sentiment. When public sentiment favors one side of a bet, it can cause the odds of an event to be over or undervalued.
DraftKings showing the percentage of bets favoring one side of an event (via X)
In the picture above, DraftKings showed that 91% of bets on their platform favored Jalen Brunson to score over 28.5 points. Because the odds overwhelmingly favor one side, bookmakers may reduce the odds of the event or increase the odds of the opposite event (ie. under 28.5).
Knowing which bets are over or undervalued compared to their statistical probability can help you spot “contrarian betting opportunities.” More on that in the section below.
Practical Uses Of Historical Betting Odds For Future Predictions
- See a team or player’s historical performance at a given odds range: Historical match results allow us to see a team or player’s performance in the past. But historical betting odds take it a step further by showing us how these teams perform against the odds valued for past events.
- Compare bookmaker margins: Historical odds allow you to travel back in time and compare the odds of an event from different bookmakers. Comparing margins gives you insight into which bookmakers will offer the most profit on a winning bet.
- Identify contrarian betting opportunities: Because the odds of an event can be over/undervalued due to public betting sentiment, historical odds coupled with data on past outcomes can help you identify contrarian betting opportunities.
- Study the historical change in odds of an event: Studying the movement of historical odds can give you insights into factors that caused the odds of an event to change over time and how those changes can affect future events.
How You Can Apply Historical Odds To Betting Strategies
You can gain insight from current and historical odds of an event to inform your betting strategies. For example, you can identify opportunities to make a profit by comparing a bookmaker’s odds and the actual probability of an event happening.
In a real betting example, this can translate to finding and betting on or against markets with a high probability of happening compared to what the bookmaker’s odds are suggesting.
Another area where historical betting odds can be helpful is in arbitrage betting. Because historical odds show you historical margins for given events from different bookmakers, punters can find the best bookmakers to place arbitrage bets and prepare for future events that haven’t been assigned their odds.
Historical odds can also reveal betting trends from the past, such as how a team has performed against the odds of an event or how much factors like public sentiments, suspensions, and injuries affected the odds movement for a given event.
But to effectively leverage historical odds in your betting strategy, it’s essential to include other historical data such as team form, head-to-head records, home and away statistics, player injuries, and other relevant metrics.
Together, you can use historical betting odds and match event data for developing predictive models and informing strategies that may increase the chances of winning.
Where To Find Historical Historical Odds
Understanding how betting odds data can enhance your approach is one thing, but getting reliable historical odds data on many different events across sports is another question. Unlike regular match event data, you won’t find historical odds on regular sports statistics and results sites/apps.
Instead, you can source historical betting odds from sites like OddsPortal, which shows you past odds on various betting markets from a wide range of bookmakers and odds movement (opening and closing odds) of an event.
Alternatively, if you’re looking for historical odds on select sports, such as football, you can turn to specific services like Football-data.co.uk for historical football betting odds.
Resources
[1] Combining historical data and bookmakers’ odds in modelling football scores
Read also: Engaging the Banker Bet Tips Approach in Researching the Surest Bet Prediction Website.
